How we estimate carbon, and how it will be measured

What the number means

• Per hectare, per year. Our headline figure of 5–10 tonnes of CO₂ is an annual removal rate per hectare once the forest is established, not a lifetime total and not a per-tree figure.
• A planning assumption with a range. It is modelled for native species on degraded land in Punjab. We give a range because a single number would be false precision.
• Before buffer and leakage. Issued credits will be lower than gross removal: a share goes to the VCS buffer pool and any leakage is deducted.
• Replaced by measurement. From the second growing season, permanent plot measurements replace the model, and we will publish the update.

How we calculate it

1. Establish the baseline. Before planting, the site's existing carbon stock in vegetation and soil is measured and documented. Only removal above this baseline counts.
2. Measure growth. Permanent fixed-radius sample plots are measured on a set schedule for survival, height, and diameter at breast height, supplemented by satellite monitoring of canopy cover between visits.
3. Estimate biomass. Species-specific allometric equations, drawn from published sources such as the FAO and CIRAD GlobAllomeTree database, convert tree measurements into above-ground biomass. Below-ground biomass is estimated with IPCC root-to-shoot ratios.
4. Convert biomass to carbon, and carbon to CO₂. Roughly 47 to 50 percent of dry biomass is carbon. Carbon is multiplied by 3.67, the molecular-weight ratio of CO₂ to carbon, to give tonnes of CO₂ removed.
5. Deduct and verify. Leakage is assessed, the buffer pool contribution is set by the VCS non-permanence risk assessment, and the result is checked by an independent verifier before any credit is issued.

How we keep it honest

• Conservative by default. Where a choice exists between assumptions, the methodology and our own practice take the lower estimate.
• Survivorship adjusted. Not every seedling survives. The plots measure what is actually standing.
• Independently verified. An accredited validation and verification body checks the design, then the measurements, before issuance.
• Published updates. When measured data replaces the planning assumption, the change and its reason are published on this page.

What this number is not

It is not a guarantee. Forests face drought, fire, pests, and people. The buffer pool and site management reduce the risk; they do not remove it.

It is not a credit. A credit exists only when an independent verifier has confirmed a measured removal and the registry has issued it with a serial number. Everything on this page before that point is an estimate.

It is not a substitute for cutting emissions. Removal credits are for residual emissions after a buyer has reduced what it can.

Standard and methodology

The project is designed to Verra's Verified Carbon Standard using its methodology for afforestation, reforestation and revegetation, and to the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market's Core Carbon Principles. Gold Standard is being evaluated as a parallel pathway. The current status of each is stated on the transparency page.

Sources and methods

Verra, Verified Carbon Standard programme and ARR methodology requirements. IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 4 (AFOLU), for carbon fraction and root-to-shoot ratios. FAO and CIRAD GlobAllomeTree database for species-specific allometric equations. Carbon-to-CO₂ factor 3.67. Forest cover comparison from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment. Price range from recent nature-based removal transactions, used as a planning assumption only.